RATING SHIFT: Sabato’s Crystal Ball Finds Increased Competitiveness in Kansas and Iowa AG Races
August 21, 2026
Jacobson: “All the shifts we’ve made in this analysis benefit the Democrats.”
WASHTINGON, DC – Sabato’s Crystal Ball has officially moved the Kansas and Iowa races for attorney general to a more competitive standing, shifting the two states from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
Lou Jacobson emphasizes “All the shifts we’ve made in this analysis benefit the Democrats.”
The ratings shift indicate that voters are tired of Republican AGs like Brenna Bird and Kris Kobach who prioritize their own partisan agendas instead of putting their constituents first.
Other key findings:
- For Iowa, Jacobson writes that Republican AG Breanna Bird “has been an eager supporter of Trump, which could put her at some jeopardy in a blue midterm.”
- “Both Toss-up races are currently held by Democrats […] The two Toss-up AG races are in Michigan and Minnesota.”
- “The Leans Democratic races are in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, all of which we are shifting from Toss-up”
- For Nevada, this race has shifted from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Jacobson writes State Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro has “momentum heading into the general election against Adriana Guzmán Fralick, a low-profile ally of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.”
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